- Pound (GBP) looks to unemployment data
- Strong wage growth could fuel BoE hike bets
- Euro (EUR) awaits German ZEW economic sentiment data
- German inflation data is also due
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is falling, extending losses from the previous session. The pair fell -0.08% on Monday, settling at €1.1629 and trading in a range between €1.1617 – €1.1712. At 05:35 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.08% at €1.1619.
The pound is falling ahead of UK labour market data which should shed more light on the health of the UK jobs market. The labour market has proved to be resilient despite the cost-of-living crisis amid high inflation and rising interest rates.
Expectations are for the unemployment rate to tick higher to 4% in the three months to April, up from 3.9%. However, average earnings are expected to continue rising to 6.9%, up from 6.7%, which could unnerve the BoE ahead of next week’s interest rate decision. Strong wage growth suggests that inflation could become more embedded in the economy.
The data comes after BoE policymaker Jonathan Haskell warned that the central bank may need to raise interest rates higher to tame inflation.
While inflation sits at 8.7%, the OECD forecast it will cool to 6.9% by the end of the year, which is still 3.5 times the BoE’s 2% target.
The euro is rising ahead of a busy day on the economic calendar. Firstly, investors will be watching German inflation data, which is expected to confirm the preliminary reading of 6.3% year on year in May, down from 7%.
Cooler-than-expected inflation could fuel bets that the ECB is close to the end of its hiking cycle.
In addition to German inflation, German ZEW economic sentiment data is due and is expected to deteriorate to -13 in June from -10 as the outlook in the eurozone’s largest economy becomes more gloomy.
The German economy tipped into recession in the first three months of the year, and weak sentiment data could point to an extended recession.
