• Indian Rupee (INR) treads water after modest losses last week
  • Goldman Sachs cuts its oil price forecast
  • US Dollar (USD) falls ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting
  • US CPI data due tomorrow

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is holding steady after modest gains in the previous week. The pair rose 0.05% in the previous week, settling on Friday at 82.42. At 11:30 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.01% at 82.44 and trades in a range of 82.40 to 82.56.

The Indian Rupee shrugs off weaker Asian forex and rising treasuries and pushes higher at the start of the week.

While other Asian currencies, such as the Chinese yuan and Thai bet fell lower, the Rupee remained supported.

A sharp drop in oil prices is also supporting the Rupee. West Texas Intermediate trades around 2% lower after Goldman Sachs cuts its oil outlook forecast for 2023 to $81 a barrel, down from $86

The US Dollar is holding steady against the Rupee but falling against its major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades -at 0.24% at the time of writing at 103.33, extending from losses from last week.

The US dollar is falling at the start of the new week as investors look ahead to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision. The market is pricing in a 70% probability that the US central bank will keep interest rates on hold in June, with a potential rate hike again in July.

A series of weaker than forecast U.S. data, including ISM services PMI jobless claims, and US factory orders, have fueled bets that the Federal Reserve will skip a hike this month.

There is no high-impacting U.S. economic data due to be released today. Investors will be looking ahead to US inflation figures tomorrow. Economists forecast that the consumer price index will cool further to 4.1%. However, core inflation which strips out more volatile items such as food and fuel, is expected to rise to 5.3%.