- Pound (GBP) rises from a 2-year low
- BoE & Treasury attempt to calm the market
- Euro (EUR) falls after weak German business sentiment
- ECB Lagarde to speak
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is rising for the second straight day. The pair settled +0.4% higher yesterday at €1.1193 after trading in a range between €1.0820 – €1.1296 across the session. At 10:45 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0.26% at €1.1220.
The pound is rebounding across the board on Tuesday after falling to a 2 year low against the Euro yesterday and a record low against the USD.
Both the Treasury and the Bank of England tried to calm the marke55ts yesterday as both the pound and gilts got hammered lower. The Treasury and the central bank both acknowledged the turmoil in the market, but both stopped short of actually taking action. This could mean that the pound will struggle to mount a meaningful recovery.
BoE’s Andrew Bailey said that the BoE will not hesitate to raise interest rates if needed. However, no action was taken, and the next monetary policy meeting is on November 3rd.
The fact that the BoE isn’t changing its stance has helped calm the sense of panic. But really, a policy U-turn from Kwasi Kwarteng or support from the BoE is needed to ensure a recovery in the pound.
Today there is no high impacting UK economic data. Investors will be watching for any further developments in Downing Street.
The euro came under pressure yesterday after German business morale deteriorated further. The closely watched IFO business sentiment index dropped by more than expected to 84.3 in September, down from 89 in August and well below the 87-level forecast.
Sentiment in Germany has deteriorated significantly as the cost of energy rises and the cost-of-living crisis deepens. The largest economy in Europe is falling into recession. The survey showed that in all sectors of the economy, firms had become more pessimistic.
Today there are no major eurozone economic data. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is due to speak. Yesterday she acknowledged the weakness in the euro was a problem for inflation. More hawkish comments could lift the euro.