- Risk off trading as still no winner in the race to the White House
- Riskier Indian Rupee (INR) slips lower, despite domestic stock market charging higher
- US Dollar (USD) rises on safe haven flows
- US labour market data up next
The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is pushing higher on Friday, snapping two straight days of losses. The pair settled -0.6% lower in the previous session at 73.91, the low of the day. At 12:15 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.3% higher at 74.15. The pair is on track to have lost -0.5% across the week after gaining for the past three weeks.
The mood in the market is starting to deteriorate on Friday with no US President announced and the drawn-out counting process unnerving investors.
Joe Biden is in the lead, closer to the 270 electoral college votes needed than Trump. However, with votes still being counted in the key battle ground swing state, both candidates are still in with a chance. Meanwhile Trump has launched a blizzard of legal proceedings which are adding to the down beat mood. As the mood sours, demand for the safe haven US Dollar is rising whilst investors are selling out of riskier currencies such as the Indian Rupee.
Whilst earlier in the week, a strong Indian equities market boosted the Rupee, that wasn’t the case today. The Rupee traded lower despite Indian shares closing at their highest level since mid-January. The stock market was boosted by Reliance Industries, one of the most valuable companies securing more funding for its retail business.
Attention could now turn to the US non-farm payrolls. Expectations are for 600,000 new jobs to have been added in October. Lead indicators have been mixed with the ADP private payroll figures coming in significantly shorter than forecasts at 365,000, versus 650,000 forecast. However, the employment subcomponent of the ISM non-manufacturing was well ahead of forecasts. The mixed lead indicators mean that it is particularly difficult to estimate whether the print will beat expectations.