- Indian Rupee (INR) and Sensex supported by economic reopening optimism
- Complications over migrant worker exodus brushed off
- US Dollar (USD) lower as safe haven demand falls post US jobs report
- At 11:15 UTC, US Dollar to Indian Rupee (USD/INR) trade almost flat at 75.53
The Indian Rupee is trading broadly flat versus the US Dollar, as it did across the previous week. The Indian Rupee settled on Friday just 0.06% stronger at 75.56.
At 11:15 UTC, USD/INR continues to trade within a familiar range at 75.53, – 0.03% amid improving risk sentiment, positive domestic equities and a weaker US Dollar.
Risk appetite strides higher as investors focus on early signs of improvements in India’s economy amid the gradual easing of lockdown measures. India reopened shopping centres and restaurants today, even as the number of covid-19 cases in India continues to grow, approaching levels witnessed by the UK and Italy.
However, even as shops reopen, it is unlikely to be business as usual. According to India’s retail association sales of non-essential items fell 80% in May. Even sales of essential goods dropped by 40%. Concerns are lingering that even as malls reopen, demand will stay stubbornly low.
A notable complication for the Indian economy has also been the exodus of migrant workers back to their home villages, resulting is huge labour shortages as the economy starts to reopen. For now, Rupee investors are looking beyond this obstacle.
The Indian Sensex equity market has jumped 6% on Monday in risk on trading, adding to 5.7% gains in the previous session.
A surprise jump in US payrolls is also helping risk sentiment in the broader financial market on Monday. This is weighing on demand for the safe haven US Dollar.
2.5 million jobs were created in US in May, well ahead of the 8 million job losses than analysts had pencilled in. Meanwhile the unemployment rate also unexpectedly ticked lower to 13.3%, down from 14.7%. The surprise improvement in the US labour market shows that the economy was more resilient than what analysts expected in the coronavirus crisis, bolstering hopes of a strong economic recovery.
The US economic calendar is quiet until mid-week, when the focus will centre on the Federal Reserve for its June monetary policy announcement. Whilst the US jobs data is encouraging, the Fed are still expected to adopt a cautious tone as risks remain elevated.
