- Pound (GBP) falls after softer inflation
- BoE peak rate expectation eases
- Euro (EUR) rose core CPI is upwardly revised
- ECB’s Klass Knot raises doubts about a September hikes
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is falling for a fifth straight day. The pair fell -0.5% in the previous session, settling at €1.1549 and trading in a range between €1.1490 – €1.1619. At 06:35 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.16% at €1.1531.
The pound fell yesterday after UK inflation dropped by more than expected, falling to the lowest level in over a year. According to the Office of National Statistics inflation dropped to 7.9% across the year to June, which was a positive surprise as economists had been expecting a smaller drop to 8.2%. Inflation had been stuck up 8.7% in April and May.
Core inflation also dropped by more than economists had been expecting to 6.9% annually in June, down from 7.1%. Services inflation also started to show signs of cooling.
However, inflation is still four times the Bank of England’s target rate of 2%, and so the central bank is still expected to raise interest rates in the August meeting. While previously the Bank of England was expected to raise by 50 basis points, there is now also a potential for a 25 basis point hike instead.
Finally, the market is pricing in a peak rate from the Bank of England of 6%. Before the data, this had been over 6%.
The euro pushed higher yesterday after eurozone inflation data showed an upward revision to core inflation. Core CPI, which removes volatile all tile items such as food and fuel, was upwardly revised in to 5.5% year on year in June, up from 5.3% in May and up from the preliminary reading of 5.4%.
Meanwhile, headline inflation was confirmed at 5.5%, down from 6.1% in May.
However, comments from ECB hawk Klass Knot capped the upside in the euro. Mr Knot pushed back on bets for a September rate hike, saying that anything beyond the jury meeting is not guaranteed.
