- Pound (GBP) falls after GDP data
- BoE rate decision is on Thursday
- Euro (EUR) rises despite Eurozone industrial output falling
- ECB rate decision is on Thursday
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is falling for a second day. The pair fell -0.2% in the previous session, settling on Tuesday at €1.1636 and trading in a range between €1.1614 – €1.1688. At 11:00 UTC, GBP/EUR trades =0.18% at €1.16417.
The pound is falling as recession fears rise in the UK amid signs that the Bank of England rate hiking cycle is slowing the UK economy.
UK GDP data showed a contraction of 0.3% month on month in October, after growing 0.2% in September. Economists had expected the economy to have stalled at 0%.
The data comes after UK jobs data yesterday showed that vacancies fell by over 45,000 and that wage growth slowed at the fastest rate in over two years. The data was a sign that demand is falling and companies are reining in hiring as the aggressive rate hiking cycle takes effect in the real economy.
Looking ahead, attention will now turn to the Bank of England and whether this recent weakening in the economy is enough to encourage policymakers to adopt a more dovish tone. In recent speeches, policymakers have sounded still quite hawkish reiterating the idea that interest rates must stay high for longer
The euro is rising despite Eurozone industrial production falling 0.6% month on month in October after dropping 1.1% in September. The industrial and manufacturing sector in the eurozone economy accounts for around 40% of activity. Ongoing weakness in this sector could fuel recession fears.
The data comes out ahead of tomorrow’s ECB interest rate decision while the central bank is expected to leave interest rates at 4% the record high but could provide clues over when the first interest rate cut will come. A dovish-sounding is ECB could see the market bring forward rate cut expectations, which would pull the Euro lower.
