- Pound (GBP) rises after losses last week
- Middle East conflict drives sentiment
- Euro (EUR) awaits consumer confidence data
- ECB rate decision is on Thursday
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is rising at the start of the week after losses last week. The pair fell -0.62% in the previous week, settling on Friday at €1.1477 and trading in a range between €1.1439 – €1.1576. At 08:35 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0.04% at €1.1482.
The pound is edging higher on Monday as the market mood improved slightly. The Middle East conflict remains a key driver for investors. News that aid has crossed the border from Egypt into Gaza and that Israel held off from a ground invasion over the weekend has raised hopes that a diplomatic solution may still be possible despite reports of bombings in the region continuing. Still, the risk of other countries joining the conflict is likely to keep investors on edge.
Looking ahead, attention will also turn to UK PMI due to be released on Tuesday along with UK employment data.
However, these figures will be closely watched for clues over the Bank of England’s next move. Last week’s softer UK wage growth, a larger-than-expected fall in retail sales, and sticky inflation painted a grim picture for the UK economy. Concerns that the UK could be heading for a downturn in the second half of the year mean that the Bank of England may refrain from raising interest rates further.
The euro is slipping at the start of the week as investors look ahead to eurozone consumer confidence data. Economists expect consumer morale in the eurozone region to fall two – 18.2 down from -17.8.
Weaker consumer confidence often goes hand in hand with lower spending as households continue to struggle amid record-high interest rates and as inflation cools slowly. The data will be closely watched because private consumption accounts for more than 50% of the eurozone’s economy.
Weak data will add to mounting evidence that the ECB has concluded its rate hiking cycle. The data comes ahead of the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday, Where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged at 4%.
