- Pound (GBP) is well matched versus the euro
- Services PMI is expected to fall to 47.2
- Euro (EUR) looks to services PMI and retail sales
- ECB Lane warned of higher rates for longer
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is holding steady for a third straight session. The pair rose 0.02% in the previous session, settling on Tuesday at €1.1534 and trading in a range between €1.1503 – €1.1561. At 06:35 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.01% at €1.1533.
The pound held steady in the previous session as investors digested the latest shop inflation figures. According to the British Retail Consortium, prices in UK retail stores rose at the slowest pace in a year in September, adding to mounting evidence that the UK’s high inflation rate is cooling. The BRC’s annual shop price inflation eased to 6.2% month on month in September, down from 6.9% in August. Meanwhile, food inflation cooled for a fifth straight month to 9.9%, down from 11.5% as food prices fell for two straight months for the first time in over two years.
The Bank of England paused its interest rate hikes in September after 14 straight hikes. With recession fears growing the market is convinced that the Bank of England won’t hike rates further.
Attention now turns to UK service sector PMI data, which is expected to show that activity slowed sharply in September, dropping to 47.2 from 49.5. The UK service sector is the dominant sector. Weak activity here would suggest that the UK economy is heading for a contraction in the third quarter of the year.
The euro held steady against the pound but fell versus the US dollar as investors digested the latest comments from ECB chief economist Philip Lane, who warned that the ECB still had work to do, suggesting the interest rates could remain higher for longer. Concerns over the impact of higher interest rates for longer on the economy kept the euro depressed.
Attention is now turning to a sea of data from the euro area, including the services PMI, which is expected to improve slightly to 48.4 from 47.9 in August. Eurozone retail sales are also in focus and are expected to fall 0.3% month on month, down from 0.2% in July. In addition to the data, investors will be watching comments from ECB president Christine Lagarde as well as ECB’s Panetta.
