- Pound (GBP) rises for a 5th day
- UK core inflation remained at 6.9%
- Euro (EUR) falls despite upbeat GDP data
- Eurozone balance of trade due
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is rising for a fifth straight session. The pair rose +0.45% in the previous day, settling on Friday at €1.1700 and trading in a range between €1.1632 – €1.1700. At 07:35 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0.02% at €1.1703.
The pound pushed higher in the previous session after UK inflation eased by more than expected to 6.8% year on year in July, down from 7.9% in June. The fall in inflation came as energy prices dropped over the past year leading to a smaller increase in the cost of living. However, the preferred gauge for inflation, which strips out more volatile items such as food and fuel remained unchanged at 6.9%.
Sticky core inflation, combined with record wage growth reported earlier in the week and stronger-than-expected GDP growth in Q2 reported last week, keeps pressure on the Bank of England to keep hiking interest rates, after 14 straight rate hikes to 5.25%.
The markets are pricing in another 25 basis point rate hike in September to take interest rates to 5.5% before arriving at a peak rate of 6% in February.
Today there is no high-impacting UK economic data for investors digest today, instead, sentiment is likely to drive movement in the pound.
The euro fell in the previous session despite upbeat data. Data showed that the eurozone economy grew 0.3% quarter on quarter in the April to June period. This was in line with the preliminary reading and up from 0% in the first quarter of the year. Re
Industrial production was also a bright spot, rising 0.5% month on month in June, ahead of the -0.1% decline forecast.
Today the eurozone economic calendar is relatively quiet, with trade balance figures being released. Economists expect the eurozone balance of trade to be €18.3 billion. Meanwhile, Thursday sees the release of eurozone inflation data.
