- Pound (GBP) is stable despite dire data
- UK food inflation soars
- Euro (EUR) looks to German retail sales and manufacturing PMIs
- Eurozone inflation falls
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is holding steady after two days of gains. The pair rose 0.1% yesterday, settling at €1.1585 after trading in a range between €1.1543 – €1.1601. At 09:25 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0% at €1.1585.
The pound is holding broadly steady despite disappointing data. According to the latest British Retail Consortium, food inflation rose to a new record peak in November of 12.4%, up from 11.6% in October. This is the largest increase in food inflation since 2005. The broader shop inflation index rose 7.3%, up from 6.6%.
The data shows that prices are still rising and that peak inflation may not yet have been reached. The squeeze on household incomes will intensify further, meaning that disposable income will fall further in a depressing outlook.
Attention will now turn to the manufacturing PMI data. This is the second reading, so is not usually as market-moving as the preliminary reading. Expectations are for manufacturing activity to slow to 46.2 in November from 47 in October. The level 50 separates expansion from contraction.
UK house price data is also due to be released and is expected to show prices cooled in November. This is not surprising, given that mortgage application approvals fell sharply as interest rates rise.
The euro weakened slightly after eurozone inflation fell for the first time in 17 months. Inflation, as measured by CPI, was 10% year on year in November, down from the record high of 10.6% in October and below forecasts of 10.4%
The data could suggest that peak inflation has passed and expectations for a 50 basis point hike in the December ECB meeting has risen sharply.
Today attention will remain on the economic calendar with the release of German retail sales, which are expected to fall -0.6% month on month in October after rising 0.9% in September.
Eurozone manufacturing PMI data is expected to confirm the preliminary reading of 47.3.