inr-bank-notes - INR
  • Indian Rupee (INR) rises despite growth expectations falling
  • GDP data is due shortly
  • US Dollar (USD) falls after 4-days of gains
  • Federal Chair Powell is due to speak

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is falling for a third straight day on Wednesday.  The pair fell -0.03% yesterday, settling at 81.41. Today, at 10:00, USD/INR trades -0.25% at 81.41, trading in a range between 81.40 to 81.65.

The Rupee is capitalizing on the weaker USD and the improved market mood, shrugging off data that points to the Indian economy slowing in the July to September quarter.

Annual growth in the Indian economy is expected to be 6.2% in the three months to September 31st, according to the latest Reuters poll. This is a marked slowdown from the 13.5% growth reported in the previous quarter. The poll comes ahead of the release of the data later today.

The previous quarter benefited from favorable comparisons during the COVID lockdown. However, the latest data will shed light on the health o the economy as the pandemic disruption ease. Looking ahead, there are concerns that growth will slow owing to the spillover from slowing global growth.

The US Dollar is falling across the board. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades at -0.4% at the time of writing at 106.40, snapping a four-day winning run.

The US dollar is heading lower amid a broad upbeat market mood, as investors are growing increasingly hopeful that more vaccines in China could pave the way to re-opening.

Attention will now turn to a key speech from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. His speech comes amid rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will start slowing the pace of rate hikes as from the next FOMC meeting in December. However, a complete dovish pivot is unlikely, given that inflation is four times the Federal Reserve’s 2% target level.

In addition to Fed Powell’s speech, US GDP data for the third quarter is due to be released and is expected to confirm 2.7% growth up from -0.6% in Q2.

ADP private payroll figures are also in focus ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll data and is expected to show that 200k jobs were added in November, up from 239k.