inr-bank-notes - INR
  • Indian Rupee (INR) falls extend last week’s declines
  • Analysts see the Rupee weakening further
  • US Dollar (USD) rises as hawkish bets rise
  • US PMI data is due later

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is rising on Monday, adding to gains from last week. The pair rose last week, settling +0.2% at 82.52, trading in a range between 82.00 to 83.26. At 10:00 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.37% at 82.83.

The Indian Rupee continues to fall against the USD, and analysts are expecting the Rupee to continue falling amid expectations that India’s central bank could lose its grip over the Rupee.

Analysts at both Barclays and Citigroup consider that the Rupee could fall to 84 or even 85 in the short term. Analysts at Standard Chartered have also said that 85 is a possibility after the pair breached 83.

The Rupee has lost around 12.5% against the US dollar so far this year despite the Reserve Bank of India stepping in regularly to stem the Rupee’s decline. This is depleting the foreign exchange reserves and could make the situation worse in the long term.

The US Dollar is rising across the board. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades at +0.3% at the time of writing at 112.33 after booking losses of 1.1% in the previous session.

The US dollar fell at the end of last week after a report in the Wall Street Journal that Federal Reserve policymakers could look to ease back on aggressive rate hikes in December, with a 50 basis point hike. A 75 basis point hike is still expected in November.

Today the USD is rising again as investors raise questions over the WSJ article, given the recent hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials.

Looking ahead, US PMI data will be in focus. Expectations are for the composite PMI, which is considered a good gauge for business activity, is expected to fall further in October to 49.1, down from 49.5.

Signs of a slowdown in the US economy could pull the US dollar lower.