- Pound (GBP) extends Sunak-inspired rally
- Lloyds bank bellwether to report
- Euro (EUR) looks to the ECB rate decision
- 75 basis point hike expected
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is rising after solid gains in the previous session. The pair rose 0.25% yesterday, settling at €1.1534 after trading in a range between €1.1490 – €1.1569 across the session. At 05:45 UTC, GBP/EUR trades 0.05% at €1.1540.
The pound rose for a second d straight session yesterday as investors continued to cheer the steadying hand of Rishi Sunak; News that the Halloween budget would be pushed back by two weeks didn’t even stop the pound on its run higher.
Rishi Sunak inherits a dire economic situation that will require spending cuts, and tax rises at a time when mortgages, food and fuel bills are all increasing, squeezing household incomes. Inflation in the UK is currently over 10% at a 4-decade high.
The Budget will come after the Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement next week. The market is pricing in a 63% probability of a 75 basis point hike in November and a 377% probability of a full 1% rate hike.
Today the UK economic calendar is quiet once again. Lloyds Bank will release third-quarter earnings. Lloyds is a domestically focused bank and is considered a bellwether for the UK economy. The amount that the bank puts aside for bad loans in the coming quarter could shed some light on how deep they believe the recession could be.
The euro fell yesterday against the pound but rose versus the US dollar as investors looked ahead to today’s European Central Bank rate announcement.
The ECB is widely expected to hike rates by 75 basis points to continue trying to tame inflation. This will be the second-rate hike of this size and the third-rate hike in the cycle, taking the benchmark lending rate to a level last seen in 2009.. The meeting comes as inflation sits at 9.9% year on year, a record high.
