• Indian Rupee (INR) falls is risk-off trade
  • OPEC+ meeting later
  • US Dollar (USD) rises across the board as hawkish bets return
  • ISM services PMI & ADP payrolls due

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is rising on Wednesday after modest losses in the previous session. The pair slipped -0.05% yesterday, settling at 81.45, trading in a range between 81.28 to 81.68 in the session. At 10:00 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.08% at 81.51.

The Rupee is heading lower as risk sentiment moderates, although domestic equities are closed in observance of Dussehra festival public holiday.

Oil prices are holding steady after strong gains of over 8% so far this week ahead of the OPEC+ meeting later today. The oil cartel is expected to cut oil output by possibly 1 million barrels per day, if not more. A larger than expected cut could send oil prices higher still. This would be bad news for India, which imports over 80% of its oil needs.

The US Dollar is rising across the board. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades at +0.6% at the time of writing at 110.84 after booking losses of 1.8% in the previous two sessions.

The US dollar fell yesterday after weaker than expected jobs data fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve would adopt a less hawkish stance towards monetary policy going forwards. However, several Fed speakers reiterating the Federal Reserve’s commitment to fighting inflation brough the markets back to reality and reminded them that there was still a lot of work to do to tame inflation, which boosted the USD at the end of the day.

The USD is rising today following those hawkish comments yesterday and as attention shifts towards the US data due later today. US ISM non-manufacturing PMI data is expected to show 56 in September, down from 56.9. This is still strong growth.

ADP payrolls are also expected to show that 200,000 private payrolls were added in September. This data comes ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll.