inr-bank-notes - INR
  • Indian Rupee (INR) falls and is set for a weekly decline
  • Inflation is expected to remain elevated until December
  • US Dollar (USD) falls versus majors
  • US new home sales, consumer confidence data due

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is rising on Friday after small losses in the previous session. The pair settled -0.03% higher on Thursday at 78.27. At 10:00 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.17% at 78.27. The pair is set to rise 0.47% across the week.

The Reserve Bank of India warned that retail inflation is likely to remain above the central bank’s upper limit until the end of the year. Whilst the RBI is hiking rates to tackle inflation it is not expected to fall below 6% until December.

Retail inflation cooled mildly in May after rising to an eight-year high of 7.79% in April. Inflation has stayed over the 2% -6% tolerance band for five consecutive months.

According to the RBI governor inflation is being driven by supply-side factors but insisted that monetary policy still played an important role.

Separately oil prices have  fallen 5% across the week which will provide some relief to India which imports around 80% of its oil needs

The US Dollar is falling across the board The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades -0.5% at the time of writing at 104.35 after gains in the previous session. The USD is set to lose 0.3% across the week.

The USD gained yesterday despite PMI data showing a large decline in the US composite PMI, which is considered a gauge for business activity. The US composite PMI fell to 51.2 from 53.8, whilst expectations had been for it to remain relatively stable.

Concerns over a recession in the US keep building after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said before Congress that a recession in the US was certainly a possibility.

Today attention is on mid-tier data with new home sales expected to fall as mortgage rates rise and affordability becomes a problem.

University of Michigan consumer confidence is expected to confirm the preliminary reading of 52, a record low.