- Pound (GBP) fell last week as the economic outlook deteriorates
- GDP data is due later in the week
- Euro (EUR) rose last week despite soft data
- ECB’s Lagarde to speak later
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is edging higher at the start of the week. The pair lost -0.25% across last week, settling on Friday at €1.1614, after trading in a range between €1.1568 – €1.1682. At 05:45 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0.09% at €1.1625.
The pound came under pressure last week as investors digested higher inflation, train strikes, and falling retail sales. On Friday, retail sales fell -0.4% month on month in May, while April’s data was downwardly revised from 1.4% to just 0.4%. The data revealed that consumers change their shopping habits as inflation surges higher.
As inflation is expected to rise to 11% annually, according to the Bank of England, the outlook for the UK economy is deteriorating rapidly. More workers and unions are expected to strike over pay across the summer.
Looking ahead, the main data focus for pound investors will be UK GDP data on Wednesday, relating to the first three months of the year. This is the third reading, so it is not expected to be particularly market moving unless there is a significant revision from the previous reading of 0.8%. Furthermore, even if it is upwardly revised, the outlook is so dire that it wouldn’t really make a huge difference.
The euro rose versus the pound despite fresh signs of economic slowdown in the region. The composite PMI, which is often considered a good gauge of business activity, fell by more than expected in June.
The German IFO business sentiment survey also fell by more than expected, showing that business morale in the eurozone’s largest economy weakened to 92.3, from 93. Firms are worried that high inflation is driving up the costs, and there could well be gas shortages in the second half of the year. Concerns over gas security in Germany have risen sharply as Russia slows supply.
Today there is no high impacting data, but European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is due to speak.
