GBP/EUR: Euro Falls Ahead of ECB Decision
  • Pound (GBP) falls despite higher inflation
  • BoE under pressure to keep hiking rates
  • Euro (EUR) rises, supported by hawkish ECB talk
  • Eurozone consumer confidence is due

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is falling extending losses from the previous session. The pair lost -0.45% yesterday, settling at €1.1606, after trading in a range between €1.1593 – €1.1662. At 05:45 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.1% at €1.1597.

The pound fell yesterday despite inflation continuing to rise. Inflation as measured by the consumer price index rose to 9.1%, as analysts forecast. The was the highest level in 40 years and was also up slightly from 9% in April. This also marked the highest level of inflation in the G7 thanks to large imported energy bills, surging food, record petrol prices, and Brexit troubles.

According to the BoE worse is yet to come with inflation set to rise to 11% and growth is expected to stall. GDP fell -0.1% in March and -0.3% in April. The BoE has said that it will keep hiking interest rates but it would seem that in doing so a recession in the UK is almost impossible to avoid.

Today attention turns to PMI data. Expectations are for both the services and manufacturing sectors to report slowing growth. The services PMI is expected to slip to 53 in June from 53.4 in May which was down sharply from 58 in April. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 53.7 down from 54.6. in May. The level 50 separates expansion from contraction.

The euro rose in the previous session despite consumer morale tumbling to an almost record low. The latest Eurozone consumer confidence data fell to -23.6 in June, its weakest reading since -24.5 which was registered in April 2020 as the COVID crisis took hold. This was worse than the 20.5 expected and comes as the cost of living crisis rises.

Looking ahead eurozone PMI data will be in focus. The composite PMI, which is considered a good usage for business activity, is expected to cool slightly to 54 down from 54.8 in May.