- Pound (GBP) awaits retail sales data
- UK inflation jumps to 9% YoY
- Euro (EUR) gains after hawkish ECB minutes
- Eurozone consumer confidence data due
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is holding steady after mild losses in the previous session. The pair settled -0.04% on Thursday, at €1.1780 after trading in a range between €1.1770 – €1.1838. At 05:45 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.01% at €1.1779. Across the week, the pair trades +0.06%, its second week of gains.
The pound fell versus the euro in the previous session. Still, it gained ground versus the US dollar, supported by the hope that British finance minister Rishi Sunak could help families and or businesses as the cost of living crisis deepens, rather than waiting for the Autumn Budget.
Earlier in the week, data revealed inflation had surged to a 40-year high at 9% on the back of higher energy, food, and fuel prices. Data last week showed that the UK economy shrank in March, raising fears that the economy is heading for a recession.
Today’s attention is now turning to UK retail sales data which will be watched closely for signs that the UK consumers are changing their habits owing to surging prices. In March, retail sales fell by -1.4% month on month. Sales in April are expected to fall by -0.2% month on month. Weak sales could rise concerns over the BoE’s ability to raise interest rates without sending the UK into recession.
Following the data, BoE’s Chief economist Pill is due to speak and could shed some light on what to expect from the BoE going forwards.
The euro advanced yesterday, boosted by a falling US dollar and following the release of the minutes from the ECB’s latest monetary policy meeting.
The minutes revealed the members of the central bank were increasingly concerned over rising inflation, with some keen to act sooner.
Momentum appears to be building for a July interest rate hike.
Today the euro will look to the release of German PPI wholesale inflation, which is expected to rise to a record high.
Eurozone consumer confidence is also expected to remain weak at -21.5.