• Indian Rupee (INR) eases after solid gains across 4 days
  • Oil prices rise on peace talk skepticism
  • US Dollar (USD) falls versus major peers
  • US ADP payroll data is due

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is rising on Wednesday, snapping a four-day losing run. The pair settled -0.6% lower on Tuesday at 75.64. At 10:00 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.25% at 75.87.

The Indian Rupee gained yesterday amid rising risk appetite following apparent progress in Russia, Ukraine peace talks. Russia agreed to de-escalate hostilities in Ukraine and pull back military action around the capital of Kyiv. The agreement highlighted a significant shift in stance from Russia and fueled optimism that the war could be entering its final phase, five weeks after starting.

Oil prices also fell sharply. West Texas Intermediate spiked to a low of $98.00 on hopes that the war would end sooner rather than later.

Today, risk sentiment is falling as skepticism grows over whether Russia will stick by its word to ease tensions on the ground. Global stocks indices are falling lower, reflecting the risk-off mood.

Oil prices are climbing again, trading back over $100 on fears of tight supply. API data revealed a draw three times larger than what analysts were expecting. Indian imports 80% of its oil needs, so it is susceptible to changes in the oil price.

The US Dollar is rising versus the Rupee but is falling against its major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades -0.4% at the time of writing at 98.04 after steep losses in the previous session.

The US dollar is falling against its major peers for a second straight session and ahead of key data. Investors are looking toward the release of the ADP employment report, which is expected to show 450k jobs were added in the private sector in March; this was down slightly from 475k in February, but still marks a strong labour market.

ADP payroll report is often considered a lead indicator for Friday’s non-farm payroll. A strong print could lift the USD.