- Pound (GBP) falls ahead of GDP data
- BoE could hike rates next week
- Euro (EUR) pares yesterday’s losses and bounds higher
- ECB was more hawkish than expected
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is falling, paring losses from the previous session. The pair settled +0.1% higher on Thursday at €1.1908 in the middle of the daily traded range. At 05:45 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.17% at €1.1890.
The euro fell in the previous session as Russia Ukraine tensions overshadowed a more hawkish European Central Bank.
The optimism which had been building on Wednesday that Russia and Ukraine could find a diplomatic solution to the war, evaporated yesterday after peace talks between the two foreign ministers ended in a stalemate with no ceasefire agreed. The disappointment sent the euro lower, even though the ECB turned more hawkish.
The ECB as expected left interest rates untouched. However, the central bank did announce that it would be winding up its asset purchase programme at a faster pace than initially expected, reflecting concerns that inflation is likely to pick up over the coming months.
Today attention remains on the eastern European war as well as the release of German inflation, the final reading for February, which is expected to confirm 5.1%.
The pound is trading under pressure as a combination of risk aversion from the Ukraine crisis and inflation fears are weighing on the common currency ahead of the GDP data due soon.
Expectations are for he UK economy o grow 0.2% month on month in January, up from a -0.2% contraction in December. Omicron cases and restrictions were starting to ease as January progressed. Even so, fears are rising over the outlook for economic growth as the Russian war continues.
Whilst the ECB adopted a more hawkish than expected stance, the Bank of England is next in line to release its monetary policy next week. There is a good chance that the BoE will hike rates again given the build in inflationary pressures.
