- Euro (EUR) extends losses despite PMI beat
- EZ inflation up next
- US Dollar (USD) rises on economic recovery prospects & vaccine rollout
- US ADP private payroll data in focus
The Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is extending losses on Wednesday for a third straight session. The pair settled -0.15% on Tuesday at US$1.2042. At 09:15 UTC, EUR/USD trades -0.2% at US$1.2013 at the low of the day and a fresh two month low.
Eurozone composite PMI final reading for January came in better than expected at 47.8, this was ahead of the preliminary reading of 47.5 although down from December’s 49.1. The level 50 separates expansion from contraction.
The data indicates a slightly deeper contraction in economic activity amid the lockdown restrictions. However, the contraction is no where near as severe as it was in the first lockdown in March / April. Even so the market shrugged off the better than forecast numbers.
Attention will now turn to Eurozone CPI data which is expected t show 0.5% month on month increase in January, up from a -0.3% decline in December.
The US Dollar is edging higher in early European trade as investors draw comparisons over economic growth in the two regions and the speed of the vaccine rollout programme.
The Eurozone recorded Q4 GDP contraction of -0.7% quarter on quarter in the final three months of 2020. This equated to a 5.1% annual contraction. Meanwhile, the US recorded growth of 4% on an annualized basis.
Moves by Congress towards passing Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion covid stimulus is helping to boost the US Dollar further amid expectations of stronger economic growth and the potential tightening of monetary policy towards the end of the year.
The vaccination rate in the US has also picked up. The Biden administration made it a policy to raise the rate of vaccinations. Now over 33 million jabs have been given. Meanwhile European continues to struggle to organize a steady strong vaccine rollout programme.
Looking ahead ADP private payroll data will be in focus. Analysts expect 49,000 private sector jobs to be created in Jan, up from a 123,000 decline in December. The data comes ahead of Friday’s non farm payrolls.