- Euro (EUR) falls as German disinflation continues -0.8% MoM November
- The ECB eased monetary policy as expected
- US Dollar (USD) rises on safe haven flows
- Congress made little progress towards a deal & jobless claims surge
The Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is edging lower on Friday. The pair rallied in the previous session settling +0.5% at US$1.2136, just shy of the high of the day. At 08:15 UTC, EURUSD trades -0.1% at US$1.2125. The pair is on track to gain 0.05% across the week, its fourth straight week of gains.
German consumer inflation data confirmed -0.8% decline month on month in November, in line with earlier forecasts. On an annual basis inflation fell -0.3%. The VAT cut introduced as part of the measures to boost the German economy has resulted in disinflation.
The weak data comes following the European Central Bank’s monetary policy announcement in the previous session. As widely anticipated the central bank increased the size of its Pandemic Emergency Purchas Programme by €500 billion to €1,850 billion and extended it until March 2022. The measures were already priced in meaning they had little impact on weakening the Euro.
The ECB did little to talk down the currency either, reiterating that they have no currency target. A strong Euro can hamper economic growth and dampen inflation, a headache the ECB can clearly do without.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar is on the rise as US Congress made little solid progress towards agreeing to a covid stimulus package and as labour market data highlighted the desperate need for a package to be agreed.
American applications for unemployment benefits surged last week, topping forecasts and jumping to a three month high as the data reflects more business shutdowns to curb the spread of covid. Initial jobless claims rose 853,000 in the week ending 5th December, well ahead of the 710,000 the previous week and ahead of expectations of 725,000.
With covid cases rising, hopitalisations at a record high and a daily death toll over 3000 tighter lockdown restrictions could be coming, hitting the labour market harder.
The US economic calendar is relatively light with just consumer confidence due later.