GBP/EUR: Brexit Extension & EU Trade Tariffs In Focus
  • Euro (EUR) under pressure as covid cases rise and ECB point to more stimulus in December
  • Eurozone GDP data is expected to show a record breaking rebound in Q3
  • Pound (GBP) under pressure as more of the UK heads towards Tier 3 lockdown
  • Brexit headlines have been broadly supportive

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is moving lower on Friday, paring gains from the previous session. The pair settled +0.2% higher on Thursday at €1.1073. At 05:15 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.2% at €1.1050. The pair is on track for weekly gains in the region of 0.5%. This would be the first weekly gain in 4 weeks.

The Euro has been under pressure across the week as covid cases surge in eurozone nations and as France and Germany almost in parallel announced a national lockdown. The two largest economies in the eurozone are tightening restrictions for a month in a bid to stem coronavirus cases which are surging out of control.

The European Central Bank kept monetary policy unchanged as was widely expected. The central bank also added to the negative tone surrounding the Euro by highlighting the downside risks to the bloc’s economy as covid cases rise and gave a firm indication that additional monetary stimulus will be coming in December to support the bloc’s economy.

Attention will now turn towards German retail sales data and German, French and Eurozone GDP data for the July – September quarter. Expectations are for a record breaking rebound after a record-breaking contraction in the second quarter.

The Pound is trading lower amid expectations that the more areas of the UK, including London will enter Tier 3 lockdown in the coming weeks as a new study showing that new cases in England are doubling every 9 days.

The Pound trading broadly higher versus its major peers in the previous session on relatively upbeat Brexit headlines. It would appear that after months of stalemate in post Brexit trade talks very slow progress is finally being made as the clock ticks towards the end of the transition period.

There is little on the UK economic calendar to distract investors from covid and Brexit headlines. UK house price data could prove to be a source of optimism if prices keep ticking higher.