GBP/EUR: Will Eurozone Inflation Pull Euro Lower?
  • Euro (EUR) trades steadily after French PMI & ahead of Region wide PMI’s
  • Service sector expected to under perform
  • US Dollar (USD) trades lower on improving market mood
  • US fiscal stimulus talks continue raising hopes that a deal is achievable

The Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is consolidating losses on Friday after steep losses in the previous session. The pair settled -0.38% lower on Thursday at US$1.1816. At 07:15 UTC, EUR/USD trades +0.05% at US$1.1825. The pair is on track to gain 0.9% across the week, recovering losses from the previous week.

Resurging covid cases and tighter lockdown restrictions across the old continent continue to impact demand for the common currency. Meanwhile recent Eurozone data disappoints unnerving investors further.

French business activity continued to contract in October as covid cases soar in the Eurozone’s second largest economy. IHS/Markit flash composite PMI fell to a 5-month low of 47.3 in October, down from 48.5 in September. This was also below forecasts of 48. The level 50 separates expansion from contraction. Delving deeper into the figures, manufacturing managed to remain in expansion territory, whilst service activity contracted sharply to 46.5.

The Eurozone PMI is expected to show a similar pattern of weakening service sector activity and steady manufacturing growth.

German GFK consumer sentiment weakened in November to -3.1, the lowest reading since July as mounting concerns over rising covid cases and tightening restrictions are reflected in the data.

The US Dollar is edging lower amid an improving mood in the market. Overnight President Trump & Joe Biden faced each other in the final live Presidential election debate. This was a more civilised affair than the first, with policy even being touched on but caused little market reaction.

Developments surrounding a US stimulus package are slow. However, the fact that he two sides are still talking is being interpreted as good news nd therefore drags on the safe haven US Dollar. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi confirmed that talks have progressed, and a deal could be agreed pretty soon. These are rather vague comments but enough to keep the market content for now.