- Pound (GBP) steady after PM announced a new three tier system for lockdown measures
- UK labour market data in focus, unemployment to tick higher
- Euro (EUR) under pressure as second wave spreads across continent
- German inflation & sentiment data up next
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is moving cautiously higher on Tuesday, extending gains from the previous session. The pair settled +0.2% at €1.1055 on Monday, slightly off the high of the day of €1.1077. At 05:15 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0.04% at €1.1061.
A new three tier system of lockdown measures have been introduced by the Prime Minister Boris Johnson in a bid to stem the spread of the resurging covid cases. The very high alert will see the shutting of pubs and bars, leisure centres and gyms. So far Merseyside, which includes Liverpool is the only area under the high alert system so far. Although given the rising number of cases across northern and southern England that could change soon. Covid fears could keep any gains capped.
Attention will now turn to the UK labour market report, particularly after the new restrictions. The unemployment rate is expected to tick higher to 4.3% in the three months to August up from 4.1% as the furlough scheme continues to unwind. The timelier claimant count for September will also be closely watched. This is the month when firearms had to start contributing to the cost of staff on furlough.
The furlough scheme ends at the end of the month and will be replaced by a less generous Job Support Scheme. Some analysts predict that unemployment could surge to almost 3 million by Christmas.
The Euro traded on the back foot in the previous session undermined by new covid lockdown measures within the region as the second wave gathers pace across the continent. France said it could be forced to apply additional restrictions whilst Italy is expected to ban parties. Whilst most European stock indices managed to close in positive territory, the Euro was out of favour.
Attention will now turn to German ZEW sentiment data and German inflation data. Both readings are expected to show a deterioration.