- Pound (GBP) weighed down by Brexit concerns as talks are due to start in London
- UK Construction PMI could offer some support to staring
- Euro (EUR)supported by upbeat market mood, attention to German factory orders and Eurozone investor confidence numbers and retail sales
- Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) slips back from €1.11
The Pound is trading lower versus the Euro as the new week kicks off. The Pound Euro exchange rate rallied almost 1% across the previous week, settling at €1.1099. At 05:15 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.3% at €1.1070.
The Pound is trading on the back foot, easing back from key €1.11 level reached the previous week. As July unfolds investors are expected to become increasingly nervous about Brexit and the Brexit process. The British Government had said that they want an outline deal ready by the end of this month. However, Brexit trade talks finished a day early last week with considerable distance remaining between the two sides.
Brexit talks will continue in London this week as planned. Headlines surrounding the talks are expected to drive the Pound.
Data wise, UK construction purchasing managers index is expected to show that the contraction slowed significantly in June. The PMI is expected to jump to 47, up from 23. The level 50 separates expansion from contraction.
The upbeat mood across financial markets is boosting the Euro at the start of the week. The encouraging economic recovery after the coronavirus lockdown, overshadows fears over rising coronavirus numbers and fears of a second wave.
Attention will now turn to German factory orders which are expected to support the rallying Euro. Analysts are expecting a strong rebound of +15% month on month in June, compared to a -28% decline in the previous month.
Eurozone investors sentiment is also expected to show a solid bounce, from -36.6% to -28.8%. Meanwhile retail sales will paint a more mixed picture, falling -15% month on month in May, compared to -11% decline in April. However, it is worth keeping in mind that in May, much of the Eurozone was still in lockdown.
Strong Eurozone data could support economic recovery risk narrative to continue to overshadow concerns of rising covid-19 numbers knocking the global economic recovery off track.
