- Pound (GBP) has struggled amid doubts over BoE’s next move
- Today, UK public sector net borrowing data is due
- Euro (EUR) gained after stronger than forecast IFO business sentiment
- There is no EZ data due today
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is rising, snapping a six-day losing streak. The pair settled -0.01% lower on Monday at €1.1890 after trading in a range between €1.1871 – €1.1909. At 05:45 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0.05% at €1.1897.
In the previous session, the pound came under pressure amid a broad risk-off mood in the market and as investors scaled back their bets on the Bank of England tightening monetary policy. The markets are currently pricing in rates being 1.5% higher by the end o the year, with a more than 0.25% rate hike priced in for the May meeting next week. However, the BoE has warned over a potential recession in the coming months and a slowdown in the labour market.
Data today revealed that optimism among British manufacturers in the three months to January fell at its fastest pace since the start of the pandemic as prices rose and orders slowed. According to the Confederation of British Industry confidence plunged to-34%, down from -9%. The data adds to evidence that suggests that the UK economy is starting to lose steam.
Looking ahead public sector net borrowing will be in focus.
The Euro managed to gain versus the pound yesterday but fell versus the stronger US Dollar.
The common currency found support from Macron winning the French election and from stronger than expected German IFO business sentiment data. The data suggests that businesses have turned more optimistic after the initial hit from the Russian war.
The IFO index unexpectedly increased to 91.8 in April, up from 90.8 in March and well ahead of forecasts of 89.1. The increase in optimism still appears a little premature given that the war is ongoing and commodity prices continue to rise.
Today the eurozone economic calendar is quiet before things start to ramp up towards the end of the week with German and eurozone inflation and GDP data.