GBP/EUR: Euro vs Pound Awaits ECB Address At End Of QE
  • Euro (EUR) tests 1.21
  • German IFO business sentiment index in focus
  • US Dollar (USD) traces US 10 year Treasury yields higher
  • Fed Powell to testify before Congress on Tuesday

The Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate is slipping lower on Monday. The pair made neither gains nor losses across the previous week, settling on Friday at US$1.2117, approximately the same level that it had started the week at. At 08:45 UTC, EUR/USD trades -0.14% at US$1.2100 towards the low of the day.

The Euro found strength at the end of last week after the Eurozone composite PMI, which is considered a good gauge for the health of the economy rose to a 2 month high in February of 48.1. This was up from 47.8 in January. The level 50 separates expansion from contraction.

The composite PMI managed to advance as the manufacturing PMI rose to a 36-month high of 57.7, up from 54.8. This overshadowed continued weakness in the service sector.

The Euro has been under pressure across recent weeks on the back of a weaker covid outlook and recent US Dollar strength.

Looking ahead the German IFO business confidence data will be in focus. Analysts are expecting both the business climate and expectations to improve, whilst the current assessment is expected to deteriorate slightly.

The US Dollar is pushing higher at the start of the week rebounding from multi year lows and tracing US 10 year treasury yields higher. Yields have advanced amid expectations of higher inflation later in the year on the back of Biden’s potential $1.9 trillion covid package. The fiscal stimulus package continues to make its way through Congress and investors are awaiting an update this week.

Despite today’s rise, the overall tone for the safe haven US Dollar remains weak as the focus remains on the global economic recovery and covid vaccine rollout.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is due to testify before congress in a bi-annual event tomorrow. Jerome Powell may need to field questions over developments in the bond market.