- Indian Rupee (INR) is holding steady
- India’s services PMI rose to 60.5 from 60.2
- US Dollar (USD) is falling against its major peers
- US continuous claims rise for a 9th straight week
The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is holding steady after two days of gains. The pair rose 0.07% in the previous session, settling on Tuesday at 83.50. At 18:00 UTC, USD/INR trades 0.01% at 83.51 and is in a range of 83.56 to 83.44.
The Rupee is unchanged after data showed that Indian service sector activity picked up in June, boosted by strong demand and a rise in export orders.
HSBC’s India services PMI, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 60.5 in June from 60.2 in May, just below the estimates of 60.6. The reading has remained above 50, the level that separates growth from contraction, for almost three years.
New business orders have been above 50 since August 2021 and grew at a fast pace in June, lifted by the fastest increase in international orders since the sub-index was added a decade ago. This is good news for the Indian economic outlook.
The US Dollar is flat against the Rupee but falling versus its major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades -0.30% at the time of writing at 105.36, marking its second straight day of losses.
The US dollar is falling as investors digest the latest U.S. jobs data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s more dovish tone.
In his speech yesterday, Powell acknowledged that the Fed had made progress cooling inflation towards its 2% target but warned that policymakers still needed more confidence before cutting interest rates. The markets interpreted this as a step closer to the Fed’s first rate cut.
However, losses yesterday were muted slightly after a stronger-than-expected number of job openings, which unexpectedly rose to 8.14 million despite expectations of a fall to 7.9 million.
Today, job data pointed to a softer labor market. ADP payrolls came in lower than expected at 150,000, down from 152,000 the previous month and below expectations of 160,000.
Meanwhile, jobless claims were just very modestly higher at 238k, up from 235k, but continuous claims rose for a 9th straight week, the longest streak since 2018 and reached 1.86 milion, the highest level since 2018. This tells us that the demand for labor is weakening.
Finally, US ISM services PMI unexpectedly contracted at 48.8, its weakest reading since November 2021, raising concerns that the US economy may be weaker than feared.
