- Indian Rupee (INR) is unchanged despite an IMF GDP upward revision
- 3% annual growth is forecast
- US Dollar (USD) falls versus major peers
- US Fed speakers in focus
The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is holding steady after gains in the previous session. The pair rose +0.16% yesterday, settling on Monday at 83.25. At 10:30 UTC, USD/INR trades 0% at 83.25 and trades in a range of 83.18 to 83.27.
Rupee is showing resilience after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised India’s full-year 2024 GDP growth forecast to 6.3%, upwardly revised from 6.1%.
The global lender expects retail inflation in the South Asian nation to rise to 5.5% in 2023/24 before easing to 4.6% in 2024/25. The IMF has highlighted stronger-than-expected consumption in the April to June period as a reason for the upward revision.
The Reserve Bank of India has projected consumer price index inflation to be 5.4% this year and GDP growth to be 6.5% in the current fiscal year.
Meanwhile, the IMF cut its growth forecast for China and left its forecast for global real GDP unchanged at 3%.
The US Dollar is holding steady versus the Rupee but falling versus major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades -0.06% at the time of writing at 105.90, extending losses for a second day.
The US dollar is falling across the board after comments from US Federal Reserve officials raised questions over whether the central bank will hike interest rates again this year.
Yesterday, top Fed officials, including Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, said that the central bank will need to proceed carefully with any further increases in interest rates, nodding to the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, which tighten financial conditions.
Today there are plenty more Federal Reserve speakers, including Mary Daly Neil Kashkari Christopher Waller, and Raphael Bostic. Investors will be watching carefully for any comments regarding the inflation outlook and the future path of interest rates.
Separately, the International Monetary Fund raised its growth projections for the US by 0.3% compared to its July update of 2.1%.
The IMF highlighted strong business investment and resilient consumption as reasons for the upward revision.
