GBP/EUR: Will UK Inflation Data Pull Pound Lower?
  • Pound (GBP) rises across the week
  • BoE rate decision next week
  • Euro (EUR) fell after the ECB hiked rates by 25 basis points
  • Eurozone balance of trade data is due

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is holding steady after two days of gains. The pair rose +0.16% in the previous week, settling on Thursday at €1.1657 and trading in a range between €1.1605 – €1.1667. At 07:35 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.02% at €1.1655. The pair is set to rise 0.09% across the week.

The euro is holding steady against the pound after falling in the previous session. The euro fell after the ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points, taking the lending rate to a record 4%; this was up from 3.75% previously and marked the 10th straight ECB rate hike.

The move came as the ECB upwardly revised its inflation forecast, with it set to remain above the ECB’s target 2% level well into 2024. Meanwhile, the growth outlook for the region is deteriorating rapidly. The European Commission downwardly revised its GDP forecast for this year and next, and the ECB also cut growth forecasts in yesterday’s rate-setting meeting. While the market assumes that this will be the last rate hike from the ECB president, Christine Lagarde wasn’t able to confirm this, leaving the door open for further hikes should inflation prove more sticky than thought.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar is relatively quiet today with just the balance of trade for the region however, ECB president Lagarde is due to speak again.

The pound is holding steady after small gains yesterday. There was no high-impacting UK economic data released yesterday to change the fundamental outlook for the pound, and that continues to be the case today as the UK economic calendar remains quiet.

Attention will turn to the Bank of England interest rate decision next week, where the central bank may raise interest rates by a further 25 basis points. However, this could be the last hike in the cycle as the UK economic outlook deteriorates.