- Pound (GBP) rose last week on hawkish BoE bets
- BoE’s Bailey is to speak today
- Euro (EUR) looks to eurozone investor confidence data
- Eurozone business activity was downwardly revised
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is falling after gains last week The pair rose +0.52% in the previous week, settling on Friday at €1.1700 and trading in a range between €1.1618 – €1.1754. At 05:35 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.1% at €1.1692.
The pound rose across the previous week, supported by expectations that the Bank of England will continue hiking interest rates higher and for longer. The market is pricing a peak rate of 6.5%, with some institutions, such as JP Morgan, saying that in some circumstances, the BoE could hike rates to 7% this cycle.
Andrew Bailey is due to speak later today and could shed more light on the future path of interest rates. When he spoke at the ECB’s annual conference two weeks ago Bailey warned that markets were wrong to assume that interest rates would from a peak reached as inflation proves to be stickier than expected.
While there is no high-impacting UK economic data due today, attention will turn toward UK jobs data tomorrow. Average earnings rose by 7.2% in May, well ahead of forecasts. High wage growth adds to evidence of a wage-price spiral.
The euro struggled last week after a mixed bag of data. Business activity, measured by the composite PMI was how much Lee revised to 49.9 into contraction territory in June. Meanwhile retail sales but also weaker than expected at 0% month on month in May below forecasts of 0.2% growth. Meanwhile, German factory orders surprise the market by jumping 6.4% month on month.
Attention now is turning to eurozone Sentix investor confidence, which is expected to deteriorate further on July 10 -17.9, down from -17. The data comes as concerns over the health of the eurozone economy continue to rise, and investors fret over a prolonged recession.
Later this week the minutes from the June ECB meeting as well as growth forecasts from the European omission will be in focus.