- Pound (GBP) rises on hawkish BoE bets
- BoE is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points
- Euro (EUR) falls despite a hawkish-sounding ECB
- ECB’s Isabel Schnabel to speak
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange is rising after losses yesterday. The pair fell -0.14% in the previous session settling on Wednesday at €1.1493, after trading in a range between €1.1491 – €1.1558. At 07:35 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0.14% at €1.1509.
The pound is falling ahead of the Bank of England interest rate decision later today. The central bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5%, the highest level since 2008. This would mark the 12th straight rate hike, this cycle which started in December 2021. The vote split is expected to remain 7-2.
The meeting comes as UK inflation remains elevated in double digits, significantly higher than inflation in other countries in the eurozone (7%) or the US (4.9%) as it has proved to be stickier than expected. Inflation remains hot as food inflation is high, growth is more resilient than initially expected and the labour market tight, boosting wages.
The Bank of England is likely to revise its year-end inflation expectation upwardly and also upwardly revised its growth outlook, potentially easing fears of a recession this year. As a result, the central bank is likely to keep the door open to a further rate hike in the June meeting, even as the Federal Reserve hints towards a pause. A hawkish-sounding BoE could boost the pound.
The euro is falling after gains in the previous session as investors shrug off hawkish European Central Bank expectations. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated that the central bank still has more work to do to tame inflation and warned that there are still significant upside risks to the inflation outlook.
Her comments came after the CD raise interest rates by 25 basis points last week.
Today there is no high impacting eurozone economic data investors will be looking ahead to a speech by ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel. Any comments regarding inflation or ECB monetary policy could influence the pair.
