numbers-and-inr-currency-symbol - INR
  • Indian Rupee (INR) rise for a 2nd day
  • Headwinds could prevent India from achieving 6.5% growth
  • US Dollar (USD) rises versus major peers in safe-haven flows
  • US consumer confidence due

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is falling, extending losses from yesterday. The pair fell -0.1% in the previous session, settling at 81.95. At 10:00 UTC, USD/INR trades -0.02% at 81.93 and trades in a range of 81.85 to 82.03.

The Indian government said that there are headwinds that could prevent India from achieving its growth forecast of 6.5% in the current financial year, which started on April 1. These include higher oil prices and troubles in the wider global financial market. Other factors, such as El Nino conditions, could hamper agricultural output and impact prices.

Earlier in the month, the IMF forecast that the Indian economy would grow 5.9% in the 2023 – 24 financial year, down 0.2% from its January projection.

The US Dollar is falling against the Rupee but is rising against major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades +0.13% at the time of writing at 101.48, rising after four days of losses.

The US dollar fell yesterday after data showed that the Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing index dropped to a multi-month low, raising concerns about the health of US economy. The market is also jittery ahead of US big tech earnings, with Microsoft and Alphabet due to report after the close.

The Federal Reserve is on a blackout period; it will be no Fed speakers until the central bank’s interest rate decision next week. The market is expecting Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, although what comes next is less certain.

The attention is turning to U.S. consumer confidence data which is expected to fall slightly to 104 in April, from 104.2. Attention will be on the expectations sub-index, which is expected to rise to 73 but remain below 80, which is usually considered a warning for a recession.