- Pound (GBP) looks to retail sales data
- BoE’s Bailey sees inflation cooling rapidly from Q2
- Euro (EUR) finds support from hawkish Lagarde
- German PPI data is due
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is falling after three days of gains. The pair rose 0.o2% in the previous session, settling on Thursday at €1.1438, after trading in a range between €1.1374 – €1.1442. At 05:45 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.12% at €1.1425. The pair is set to rise 1.24% across the week.
The pound found support in the previous session, despite a broad risk-off mood in the market as investors digested the latest comments by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey. Bailey said that the fall in inflation in December marked a turning point and that he expects inflation to fall rapidly from Spring. He added that the recession in the UK might not be as deep as initially feared.
Attention will now turn to UK retail sales data which is expected to rise 0.5% month on month in December after falling -0.4% in November. According to the British Retail Consortium, retailers benefited over Christmas from a sales boost felled by Christmas shopping and the World cup, which bodes well for UK retail sales figures.
The euro was resilient in the previous session, boosted by hawkish comments from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who said that inflation in the bloc was still way too high and reiterated the central bank’s commitment to reining in inflation. Her comments pointed to the ECB continuing to hike interest rates and to keep rates in restrictive territory long enough to bring inflation to 2%.
She added that she believes that the eurozone economy would only see a small contraction rather than a deep recession.
Today attention will remain on Christine Lagarde who is expected to speak again. German wholesale inflation, as measured by the producer price index, PPI will also be in focus. PPI is expected to cool significantly to 20.8% year on year, down from 28.2%.
Cooling wholesale inflation often indicates that consumer prices will continue falling too.