GBP/USD: Pound Dips As UK Polititcs & G20 Take Centre Stage
  • Pound (GBP) rebounds, although the outlook remains weak
  • BoE’s Tenreyo to speak
  • Euro (EUR) falls after Italian industrial output declines
  • German inflation is due tomorrow

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is rising after steep losses in the previous session. The pair fell -0.9% yesterday, settling at €1.1346 after trading in a range between €1.1327 – €1.1475. At 08:45 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0.6% at €1.1408.

The pound is rebounding after falling steeply across the past few sessions. The pound hasn’t been reacting to any specific economic data, as the UK economic calendar has been quiet this week. Instead, BoE speakers have been under the spotlight, warning over the outlook for the UK economy. Earlier in the week, chief economist Huw Pill warned of a bleak outlook. Yesterday both John Cunliffe and David Ramsden spoke. Today attention is on Silvana Tenreyo.

With inflation still in double digits and consumer confidence on the floor, as well as plenty of earnings from UK corporations, there appears to be little reason to be cheerful regarding the outlook for the UK economy. Data on Friday is likely to confirm this, with Q3 GDP expected to show a steep 0.5% quarter-on-quarter decline.

The BoE warned that the UK is likely to tip into recession in the first quarter of next year and remain in recession until the start of 2023.

The euro rose yesterday despite a light economic calendar but is heading southwards today. Whilst there is no high impacting eurozone economic data, a few mid-tier releases could be influencing the common currency.

Italian industrial production fell in September on both a monthly and annual basis. Industrial out on the euro zone’s fourth largest economy contracted 1.8% month on month after rising 2.3% in August. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, industrial output fell 0.5%, below forecasts of a rise of 0.9%.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, German inflation data will be in focus and is expected to confirm a rise to 10.4% year on year in October, up from 10% in September. Hot inflation could pile pressure on the ECB to hike rates by 75 basis points again at the next meeting.