gbp-british-pound-coin - GBP
  • Pound (GBP) fell 2% last week after the BoE meeting
  • UK outlook still bleak
  • Euro (EUR) falls despite stronger than forecast German industrial output
  • ECB’s Panetta in focus

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is rising after steep losses in the previous week. The pair fell -2% last week, settling at €1.1416 after trading in a range between €1.1379 – €1.1665 across the week. At 09:45 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0.4% at €1.1466.

The pound is pushing after steep losses last week after the Bank of England monetary policy meeting. The UK central bank wanted of a prolonged recession lasting until the end of 2023. The BoE also warned that peak interest rates were unlikely to rise to the level that the market was pricing in. The repricing lower of interest rate expectations pulled the pound southwards.

Today sterling is rebounding, helped higher by the broadly upbeat mood in the market as investors continue to expect the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of rate hikes going forward, which should be good news for global economic growth.

Despite the rise today, the outlook for the UK economy is still bleak. A survey by Deloitte showed that six in ten Britons are planning to spend less this Christmas than last year as the cost-of-living crisis impacts consumer behavior. This suggests that retailers could also struggle in the critical festive period.

Consumers could face even tighter budgets after November 17th, when the government will unveil its fiscal plan. Expectations are for tax rises and spending cuts.

The euro is trading lower versus the pound but is rising against the USD. German industrial output beat forecasts, growing by more than expected in September. Industrial output was up 0.6% month on month, ahead of forecasts of a rise of 0.2%. The upbeat figures come despite ongoing delivery bottlenecks and elevated energy costs.

Looking ahead, attention will be ECB official Panetta who is due to speak and could shed more light on the central bank’s next move for interest rates. After hiking raise by 75 basis points in October, the ECB could hike by a further 75 basis points to tame record-high inflation.