GBP/EUR: BoE Mark Carney Lifts Pound vs. Euro
  • Pound (GBP) rises on hawkish BoE bets
  • BoE to hike by 0.75%
  • Euro (EUR) rose yesterday despite weak manufacturing data
  • Eurozone unemployment data due

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is rising, paring losses from the previous session. The pair fell -0.24% yesterday, settling at €1.1597 after trading in a range between €1.1581 – €1.1651 across the session. At 05:45 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0.13% at €1.1610.

The pound is edging higher ahead of the Bank of England’s interest rate decision later today. The BoE is expected to raise interest rates by 0.75% in what will be the central bank’s largest rate hike in 33 years. The move comes as the bank continues to fight 40-year high inflation of 10.1% year on year in September.

New growth projections by the bank are expected to show that growth momentum is slowing considerably. Goldman Sachs forecast the UK economy contracting 1.4% in 2023, a downward revision from -1%. Weaker household spending and the less generous energy scheme from PM Sunak were cited as reasons for the slowdown in growth.

Weaker growth, as well as the expected tax raises and spending cuts which are expected to be announced on 17th November, could all help to lower inflation and could ease the pressure for more aggressive monetary tightening. Therefore, the BoE is not expected to continue pointing to a 75-basis point hike, with 50 basis point hike expected for December.

The euro rose in the previous session despite the eurozone manufacturing PMI being downwardly revised to 46.4 in October from 48.4 in September. The level 50 separates expansion from contraction. The data suggests that the eurozone is heading for a contraction.

Instead, the euro found support from rising expectations that the ECB could raise interest rates by 75 basis points again in the December meeting. This would be the third jumbo-sized rate hike in a row.

Looking ahead, attention will be on the eurozone unemployment rate, which is expected to hold steady at 6.6% in September.