GBP/EUR: Will Eurozone GDP Data Pull Euro Lower?
  • Pound (GBP) falls ahead of GDP data
  • UK GDP is expected to rise 0.5% MoM in July
  • Euro (EUR) is rising after a hawkish ECB meeting last week
  • There is no high impacting euro zone data

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is falling at the start of the week, adding to last week’s losses. The pair fell -0.19% across last week, settling on Friday at €1.1537, after trading in a range between €1.1475 – €1.1673 across the week. At 05:45 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.15% at €1.1520.

The pound fell for a second straight week last week despite Prime Minister Liz Truss announcing a huge energy relief package a few days after becoming the new leader of the country. While the energy relief package helped pick the pound up from weekly lows, there are concerns over the amount of government borrowing needed to fund the programme. These concerns saw investors dump government gilts, sending yields surging higher.

On Friday, the Bank of England announced that it was postponing the monetary policy meeting which was due to be held on Thursday due to the period of national mourning. The MPC will now be on 22nd September.

Looking ahead, this week will still be a busy week as far as data is concerned. Today sees the release of monthly GDP data, which is expected to show a rebound of 0.5% month on month in July after contracting -0.6% month on month in June. Strong economic growth could lift the pound.

The euro ended last week higher after a troubled start. Russia cut gas supply to Europe along the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, raising fears of gas rationing and recession.

The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 75 basis points, the largest rate hike on record, and its second rate hike this cycle as it looks to tame record-high inflation. The ECB hiked rates by 50 basis points in July. ECB President Christine Lagarde and other ECB policymakers sounded hawkish following the meeting, suggesting that more rate hikes are coming.

Today there is no high impacting eurozone data. Looking ahead, the German ZEW data in addition to German and eurozone inflation data, is due later in the week.