- Pound (GBP) rises despite weak data
- BoE rate announcement next week
- Euro (EUR) slips falls after German consumer morale tanks
- German inflation data due
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is rising for a fifth straight day. The pair rose 0.18% in the previous session settling on Wednesday at €1.1906, after trading in a range between €1.1865 – €1.1916. At 05:45 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0.08% at €1.1916.
The Pound gained yesterday despite weak data. An industry survey revealed that British employers were the most pessimistic about hiring and investment since March 2020 and the depths of the COVID pandemic. Meanwhile, data also showed that prices in Britain’s supermarkets rose by 4.4% in the 12 months to July, marking the biggest rise in over a decade.
Today there is no high impacting UK macro data. Attention will start turning toward the Bank of England monetary policy announcement next week. The UK central bank is widely expected to hike rates by 25 basis points but could raise rates by 50 basis points.
The euro continued to fall in the previous session after data revealed that German fell to a record low. GFK consumer confidence index fell to -30.6 in August, down from -27.7 in July and below the -29 forecast.
The mood among German consumers tumbled as food and energy prices soars, and the economy sits on the cusp of recession. According to the survey, fears of an impending recession are rising.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has lifted energy costs fueling already high inflation. Today German inflation data is expected to show that inflation eased slightly in July to 8.1% year on year, down from 8.2%, a record high reached in June. However, on a monthly basis, inflation is expected to rise 0.4% after falling -0.1% in June.
The data comes after the ECB hiked interest rates for the first time in 11 years last week as it attempts to fight surging inflation across the bloc. The 50 basis point hike caught the market by surprise and helped to lift the EUR from parity versus the USD.
