inr-bank-notes - INR
  • Indian Rupee (INR) rises as April – June GDP is expected at 15.2%
  • Higher interest rates could slow growth in the coming quarter
  • US Dollar (USD) rises versus majors after consumer confidence rises
  • US ADP payrolls are due

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is falling on Wednesday for a third straight session. The pair settled -0.3% lower on Tuesday at 79.66. At 11:00 UTC, USD/INR trades -0.20% at 79.50.

The Indian Rupee is pushing higher boosted by reports that the economy probably grew at its fastest pace in a year in the April to June quarter. The economy is thought to have expanded by 15.2% on an annual basis up from 4.1% in the January to March quarter. However, the pace of growth is expected to slow as interest rates are lifted.

The Reserve Bank of India has raised interest rates by 140 basis points since May, when it hiked for the first time in two years, as it fights against above-target inflation.

The US Dollar is falling versus the Rupee but rising against major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades +0.33% at the time of writing at 109.13 after mild losses yesterday.

The USD is charging higher tracking treasury yields northwards. Data yesterday showed that consumer confidence was stronger than expected in August climbing to 103.3, up from 95.3 in July.

In addition to consumer confidence rising, JOLYS job openings also unexpectedly jumped to 11.2 million vacancies. The data shows that not only is the mood among consumers improving, meaning they are likely to spend more, but the jobs market is tightening which puts upward pressure on wages.

In short, the data paths the way for the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates more aggressively in order to bring inflation under control.

Attention will now turn to US ADP private payroll data which is expected to show that 200,000 jobs were added in August. A strong report would bode well for Friday’s non farm payroll data.