• Indian Rupee (INR) rises as wholesale inflation climbed
  • RBI likely to keep hiking rates
  • US Dollar (USD) eases after surging higher yesterday
  • US PPI data due

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is heading lower for a second straight day. The pair settled -0.12% lower on Monday at 78.08. At 10:00 UTC, USD/INR trades -0.07% at 78.03.

The Indian Rupee is capitalizing on the weaker US dollar, rising after India wholesale inflation rose at the fastest pace in three decades, piling pressure on the Reserve Bank of India to hike interest rates again.

High global energy and raw material prices are to blame, sending WPI to 15.88% year on year in May, remaining in double digits for a 14th straight month. Analysts had forecast a rise to 15.1%.

The data comes after retail inflation printed at 7.04% annually in May, slightly down from the 7.79% recorded in April, an eight-year high.

The RBI raised interest rates by 50 basis points in May after a 40-basis point hike in April. The bank is widely expected to hike rates again in the next meeting in August.

The US Dollar is falling across the board. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades -0.3% lower after five straight days of gains.

The US dollar rose strongly in the previous session as investors continued digesting Friday’s inflation data, which prompted bets of a 75 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve this week. According to the CME Fed watch tool, the markets are now fully pricing in a 75 basis point rate hike, this is up from just a 4% probability a week earlier.

Fears that the Fed could tip the US economy into recession also fueled safe-haven flows into the greenback

Today, the US dollar is easing lower as Treasury yields retreat., Attention is turning to US wholesale inflation data, which is expected to see a very slight tick lower to 10.9%, down from 11%.

Hotter than expected PPI inflation could send the USD northwards once again.

The Federal Reserve also kicks off its two-day monetary policy meeting today with the interest rate decision due tomorrow.