- Pound (GBP) holds last week’s gains
- UK inflation data in focus this week
- Euro (EUR) weighs up Russia tensions
- German PPI inflation & Eurozone economic forecasts due
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is holding steady at the start of the week. The pair gained 0.7% across last week, settling on Friday at €1.1771 after trading in a range between €1.1601 – €1.1786. At 05:45 UTC, GBP/EUR trades -0.01% at €1.1770.
The pound pushed higher versus the euro last week, but that was more of a case of euro weakness than strength in the pound. The pound has broadly traded under pressure after the Bank of England warned of double-digit inflation and a recession and, as Brexit woes return to haunt the market.
Last week’s data revealed that the economy contracted in March by 0.1% as consumers cut back on spending amid the cost of living crisis bites. A recession almost seems inevitable in the coming quarters; the big question is how deep will it be?
This week there is plenty of UK data that could drive the pound. The central focus will be on UK inflation data which is expected to tick higher to 9.1% YoY in April, a record high for this inflation reading and up from 7% YoY in March.
Brexit worries will also be in focus after the British government threatened to scrap the Northern Ireland protocol, a move that could spark a trade war with Europe when the UK economy least needs it.
Last week, the euro came under pressure amid ongoing security concerns across the bloc as Finland and Sweden, two historically neutral countries, prepare to request NATO membership. This is likely to infuriate Russia.
The EU is still trying to approve a plan to ban Russian oil. However, Hungary is holding up the vote, to which all members of the EU must agree. Still, the deal was agreed the impact on the European economy would be high.
Today sees the release of German wholesale inflation, which is expected to continue rising in April to 24% year on year. Eurozone economic forecasts are expected amid fears of recession.