• Indian Rupee (INR) eases after 4 days of gains
  • Oil prices ease
  • US Dollar (USD) falls versus major peers
  • US job vacancies & consumer confidence data due

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is rising Tuesday after a four-day losing run. The pair settled -0.26% lower on Monday at 76.08. At 10:30 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.05% at 76.11.

The Rupee has pushed higher in recent sessions as the market mood improved and oil prices fell. Risk sentiment has picked up, driving demand for riskier assets and currencies such as the Rupee.

Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine resume today in Turkey after a two-week break, and while progress has been slow, the fact that they are resuming talks at all is giving the markets a cause for optimism.

Oil prices continue to fall, which is good news for India, which imports over 80% of its oil. West Texas Intermediate dropped 7% yesterday as Shanghai entered into lockdown, raising concerns over the demand outlook. OPEC+ will meet on Thursday to decide whether to increase production further.

The US Dollar is rising versus the Rupee but falling versus its major peers. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies, trades -0.11% at the time of writing at 98.98 after solid gains on Monday.

The US Dollar rose yesterday amid growing expectations for a more hawkish Fed. Fed speakers last week and this week so far continue to express the need for the Fed to act aggressively to tighten monetary policy as the cost of living surges.

According to the CM Group Fed funds, the market is pricing in a 72% probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in the May meeting.

Looking ahead, US JOLTS job opening data is expected to show that there are still over 11 million vacancies in the US, significantly more than the number of unemployed people.

US consumer confidence is expected to edge lower to 107 in March, down from 110.5 in February, as the rising cost of living and the uncertainty from the Russian war starts to bite.