• Pound (GBP) looks to GDP data for direction
  • Brexit headlines have hurt demand for sterling
  • Euro (EUR) trades under pressure on firmer USD
  • ECB macro projections

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is heading higher, paring losses from the previous session . The pair settled -0.16% lower on Wednesday at €1.1671, at the low of the day. At 05:45 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0.15% at €1.1689.

The Pound came under pressure in the previous session as Brexit headlines continue to unnerve investors. The British government is considering triggering article 16 which would effectively end Norther Ireland border cooperation with the EU.

The warning from the EU has increased tensions between the UK and the EU, with the EU saying that they could retaliate if the UK does go along the route of article 16. David Frost the Brexit mister urged “our European friends to stay calm and keep things in proportion.”

Today the economic calendar is back in focus with the release of UK GDP for the third quarter. The UK economy is expected to have grown by 1.5% in the July- to September period. This is down considerably from the 5.5% growth recorded in the second quarter as the economy ramped up after lockdown. The slowdown comes amid the ongoing supply chain issues, labour market problems and rising energy prices.

A weaker than forecast reading could send the Pound lower, whilst a stronger reading could ease concerns over stagflation and prompt bets of a sooner move by the BoE.

The Euro pushed higher yesterday despite a strong rebound in the US Dollar, after US inflation surged to 6.2% year on year. The Euro trades inversely to the US Dollar.

The Euro advanced as German inflation confirmed the flash reading of 4.5%. Germany is experiencing its highest level of inflation in a decade amid rising energy prices and supply chain disruptions. These contributing factors are not new, and they are not likely to go away anytime soon. Producer prices remain elevated suggesting that there is still further to go in consumer prices before a slowdown expected next year.

Attention today will be on the ECB macro projections which should provide further clues over where the economy is heading.