inr-bank-notes - INR
  • Indian Rupee (INR) slips on consumer spending concerns
  • Rising fuel prices are hurting household spending
  • US Dollar (USD) rises as jobless claims beat forecasts
  • US manufacturing and services PMIs due tomorrow

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is heading lower on Thursday after two straight days of losses. The pair settled -0.4% lower on Wednesday at 74.79. At 15:00 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.06% at 74.8.

The Rupee trades lower as rising prices hit consumer sentiment ahead of the upcoming Diwali festival of light. Surging oil prices mean fuel prices, transport costs combined with stagnant income growth across the pandemic mean that consumers are unlikely to splash out across the festival season. Usually Diwali marks India’s busiest shopping season for consumer goods.

Petrol prices are up almost 35% compared to a year ago. Meanwhile cooking gas is up by almost 50% which is affecting around 75% of households. Indian imports over 80% of its oil and with oil prices surging these pressures look unlikely to ease anytime soon.

The US Dollar is heading higher across the board on Thursday. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies trades +0.07% at the time of writing at 93.62 after two losing sessions.

The US Dollar is tracing treasury yields higher. Concerns over rising inflation have returned as US corporate earnings highlight rising costs pressures.

On the data front, US jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a fresh post pandemic low. 290,000 Americans filed for jobless benefits last week, this was down from the upwardly revised 296,000 recorded the previous week. The lower number of claims marks the second straight week of falling claims after three straight weeks of gains.

Adding to the upbeat mood US  house sales also came in better than expected in September, rising 6.29 million month on month.

Looking ahead there is no high impacting US data today. Tomorrow US manufacturing and services PMIs for October will give some clues as to the health of the US economy.