• Indian Rupee (INR) looks to Friday’s RBI announcement
  • No changes to the repo rate expected
  • US Dollar (USD) rises on safe haven flows.
  • US ADP Employment change data due

The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is pushing higher on Wednesday after posting mild losses in the previous session. The pair settled -0.04% on Tuesday at 74.72. At 11:30 UTC, USD/INR trades down +0.25% at 74.72.

Attention is firmly on the Reserve Bank of India which is due to announce its monetary policy decision on Friday. The RBI is broadly expected to keep the repo rate unchanged in order to continue supporting the economic recovery, even though inflationary pressures are rising as fuel price jump. However, some analysts are suggesting that the RBI could increase the reserve repo rate.

Inflation according to the latest poll is expected to be above the RBI’s medium-term forecast of 4% but was also projected to remain below the 6% upper threshold.

In addition to any changes to the repo and reverse repo rate, investors will also be watching the RBI’s guidance on liquidity withdrawal.

The US Dollar is gaining ground across the board. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies trades +0.34% at the time of writing at 94.29, just shy of 94.50 reached last week – the highest level since September 2020.

The US Dollar is advancing, boosted by safe haven flows amid concerns that rising energy prices will result in higher inflation, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten its monetary policy sooner rather than later.

Overnight the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates for the first time in seven years. In Europe Romania also hiked. The hawkish tone is picking up in central banks across the globe which is also adding to expectations that the Fed will start tapering.

Attention now turns to the US ADP payroll report. A strong number could cement expectations of a move by the Fed, particularly in light of yesterday’s strong ISM services PMI. Expectations are for 428,000 private jobs to have been added in September, up from 374,000 in August.