- Indian Rupee (INR) falls tracing equities lower & ahead of inflation data
- Indian manufacturing & industrial production decline in July
- US Dollar (USD) rises after hawkish Fed commentary
- US CPI due tomorrow
The US Dollar Indian Rupee (USD/INR) exchange rate is pushing higher on Monday, extending gains from the previous week. The pair gained 0.7% last week, closing on Friday at 73.51. At 12:30 UTC, USD/INR trades +0.32% lower at 73.57.
The Indian Rupee is tracing domestic equities lower. Indian shares are falling at the start of the week weighed down by heavyweight Reliance Industries after it delayed the release of its new low cost smartphone which it has been developing with Google.
Attention is now turning to retail inflation data which is due to be released. Expectations are that inflation will remain within the Reserve Bank of India’s comfort zone of between 2% – 6% at 5.6% in line with the previous month.
The data comes following mixed manufacturing and industrial production numbers for July. Whilst manufacturing output beat forecasts at 10.5%, this was still down from June’s 13%. Industrial production also slipped from June’s 13.6% print to 11.5%. However, this was ahead of forecasts of 10.5%.
The US Dollar is pushing higher across the board. The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus a basket of major currencies trades +0.2% at the time of writing at 92.86, extending gains from last week.
The US Dollar trades at a two-week high as expectations build that the US Federal Reserve could taper its bond purchases sooner rather than later. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker became the latest to join a growing number of Fed officials who are in favour of the central bank tapering support this year. His comments come ahead of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting next week.
Attention is turning to US economic data due this week and particularly US consumer prices which are due on Tuesday. Expectations are for CPI to remain elevated at 5.4%. Retail sales data is also due on Wednesday. However, with consumer confidence falling and prices rising, retail sales could be disappointing.