- Pound (GBP) steady after losses on Thursday
- Supply chain issues could slow economic recovery
- Euro (EUR) shrugged off dovish ECB minutes & weak German consumer confidence
- Fed Chair Powell’s speech in focus.
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is treading water after losses in the previous session. The pair settled -0.27% lower at €1.1655 after moving as higher €1.1690 earlier in the session. At 10:00 UTC, GBP/EUR trades +0.02% at €1.1657. The pair is set to gain just 0.1% across the week.
The Pound is trading in a muted fashion at the end of the week. Sterling came under pressure in the previous session as amid rising concerns over supply chain issues in the UK and the impact that they could have on the UK economic recovery.
Supply chain issues, stemming from covid, Brexit or the global chip shortage are showing few signs of letting up any time soon. Furthermore, acute labour shortages in the UK are adding to the problem. There is a recruitment crisis in haulage, hospitality and food processing as workers either self-isolate or have departed Britain because of Brexit.
Whilst economists are sticking by their growth forecasts for now, this could change if supply side constraints prevent consumers from spending.
Today there is no high impacting UK data to be released.
The Euro managed to gain ground in the previous session despite more weak data from Germany and the minutes from the latest European Central Bank meeting showing that the central bank is in no rush to start tapering monetary policy.
German consumer confidence was also weaker than expected. The GFK index revealed that morale is expected to fall to -1.2 points in September, down from -0.4 in August and well short of the -08 fall forecast. Rising covid cases in the country, fears of another lockdown in the Autumn, rising inflation in addition to supply chain issues hurting the manufacturing sector have all weighed on sentiment.
Today the Eurozone economic calendar is also quiet. Investors will be watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium for clues over the timing of the Fed tapering bond purchases. This speech could have a strong impact on the US Dollar and consequently the Euro given that the Euro trades inversely to the greenback.